2025 has seen buy now, pay later regulatory talks heat up, tokenisation taking its next steps in the real-world, and new developments within AI that will all take on greater effects in 2026.
In the second part of a two-part series, Payment Expert spoke to several industry leaders who shared what they believe were some of the overarching trends that defined the financial sector in 2025, and what we should be paying attention to this year.
Jeroen Hölscher, Global Head of Payment Services at Capgemini: What banks must do next
For banks, 2026 is an opportunity to reposition themselves in the merchant value chain. Winning banks will take four decisive actions:
- Place orchestration at the heart of their merchant offering. Move from payment acceptance to payment optimization and deliver measurable improvements in performance, uptime, and fraud accuracy.
- Integrate deeply with independent software vendors and payment facilitators. Software platforms now dictate merchant experience. Banks must embed themselves in those ecosystems.
- Turn orchestration data into differentiated values. Unified intelligence enables smarter pricing, industry-specific fraud strategies, and stronger merchant acquisition.
- Use orchestration as a modernization engine. It allows banks to boost performance today while upgrading legacy systems over time.
Payment orchestration will define the competitive frontier in 2026. It offers the intelligence merchants demand, the resilience modern commerce requires, and the agility banks need to stay relevant. The institutions that put orchestration at the center of their merchant strategy will be the ones leading the next chapter of payments. Those that delay may find themselves competing from the sidelines in a market that rewards speed, intelligence, and adaptability.
Julie Sutton, Head of Growth, Europe at Paymentology: Time for BNPL regulation
In 2026, buy now, pay later (BNPL) in Europe will shift from a fast growth standalone product to a regulated capability built into cards and wallets.
Adoption of BNPL products remains high across key markets such as the UK, Germany and Sweden, but tighter oversight is reshaping how BNPL operates, with new rules bringing clearer credit checks, stronger disclosures and greater consumer protection. As regulation raises the bar, growth will continue at a steadier pace and favour larger, well capitalised players, driving consolidation across the market.
At the same time, instalments are moving directly onto debit and credit cards, giving consumers the choice to pay immediately or spread the cost without opening a separate BNPL account. This integration keeps BNPL relevant while aligning it more closely with traditional credit, turning it into a familiar, trusted part of everyday payments rather than a standalone alternative.
Partnering with an advanced, cloud-first issuer-processor is key for banks and fintechs expanding their BNPL and credit products, enabling real-time data and instant decisioning to the users that increasingly value control and visibility.”
Oleg Stefanets, Chief Risk Officer at payabl: First Party Fraud remains a problem
First party fraud, or so called “Friendly fraud”, where buyers falsely dispute legitimate transactions but keep the goods or receive services, has proven to be a huge and growing problem for retailers over the past year.
Our recent research into the impacts of fraud on both consumers and businesses found 31% of UK merchants have been hit by first party fraud in the last 12 months. Unfortunately, this type of fraud appears to show no signs of slowing down, with cases of first party fraud predicted to reach 337 million globally by 2026 – 42% higher than they were in 2023. We’re seeing an increasing awareness of chargeback rules, with more people finding loopholes to dispute legitimate transactions.
While businesses of all sizes are at risk from fraud, smaller businesses appear to be the most impacted by these malicious attacks, with 34% of SMEs affected by first party fraud compared to 29% of larger organisations over the past year.
As commerce moves increasingly online, more merchants are finding themselves having to manage the risk of online fraud, as well as threats from increasingly sophisticated threats, utilising innovations in areas like AI to target a greater number of merchants more viciously than ever before.
Our research also found that only 50% of retailers currently use a payment partner that offers built-in fraud tools, meaning many businesses are still leaving themselves vulnerable to fraudsters. Despite this, many companies understand the need for better fraud prevention to protect their businesses, with 87% telling us that preventing fraud attacks will be crucial to their long-term success not only by protecting them financially but ensuring their reputation remains untarnished. As a result, 76% are actively planning to invest more in fraud prevention tools in 2026.
Companies that wish to protect themselves from the growing risk of fraud should look to partner with payment providers that offer embedded fraud protection and provide advanced fraud controls to help identify and block suspicious activity before fraudulent purchases occur. For example, our partnership with a global leader in AI-driven fraud prevention, Sift, means we are able to offer retailers real-time fraud protection 24/7.
Teresa Cameron, Group CEO of Clear Junction: Tokenisation to tidy up market plumbing
2026 looks set to be the year tokenisation moves from an interesting concept to a more routine part of the financial system. Smart, blockchain-based contracts can automate transactions and settlement, as well as record ownership, so that trades can be carried out with far less manual handling and fewer intermediaries.
This should lead to smoother institutional trading and more efficient post-trade processes. Coupled with growing regulatory clarity, such as the FCA’s recent consultation paper, we’re likely to see more institutional experimentation and, over time, adoption of tokenised instruments in live environments rather than just pilot projects.
Amy Nauiokas, Founder/Group CEO of Anthemis Group: AI – turn momentum into value
As we look ahead to 2026, the defining trend will be a shift from simply using AI as a tool, to building the infrastructure and capabilities that allow the UK to lead in its deployment.
Over the past year, we’ve seen promising steps toward strengthening AI infrastructure, from the government’s announcement of new Growth Zones to increased investment in computer hardware and R&D as part of the Tech Prosperity Deal. In 2026, the question becomes whether businesses and governments can convert that momentum into real, scalable value.
The organisations that win will be those that treat digital infrastructure as seriously as physical infrastructure, embedding the compute capacity, engineering talent and data foundations needed to deploy AI safely and at scale.
We’ll also see a stronger push toward AI sovereignty and homegrown innovation. With AI systems becoming more powerful and more deeply integrated into industry, reliance on a small number of global technology providers is increasingly untenable.
In 2026, UK enterprises will look for alternatives that offer more transparency, interoperability and control. That creates huge opportunities for domestic founders, technologists, academics and early-stage disruptors, whose expertise remains one of the UK’s greatest untapped assets.
If we continue to empower those leaders, strengthen regional innovation hubs and pair pro-innovation policy with real investment, the UK can build an AI ecosystem that is competitive, resilient and capable of producing the next generation of globally significant companies.
