Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has officially gone mainstream, according to Worldpay’s Global Payments Report.
Published on May 13, the report shows BNPL has surged from just $2.3bn in global e-commerce value in 2014 to $342bn in 2024.
A figure expected to reach $580bn by 2030, marking a near tenfold rise over 16 years and cementing BNPL’s place alongside cards and digital wallets as a core payment method.
Adoption varies significantly by region. Europe leads, with BNPL accounting for 8% of all e-commerce transactions. Sweden tops the list at 22%, followed by Norway (19%) and Germany (18%).
Sweden’s dominance isn’t unexpected, as Klarna, the world’s largest BNPL provider, is based in Stockholm. In recent months, however, Klarna has turned its attention to the US, preparing for an IPO once markets become less volatile.
While BNPL remains more common online, Worldpay’s report notes it was still not widely used at the point of sale (POS) in 2024. This may change soon, however. Klarna recently partnered with Fiserv’s Clover platform, a collaboration aiming to bring BNPL options to more in-store checkouts across the US.
In other parts of the world, Australia demonstrates strong BNPL adoption, with the method accounting for 15% of all commerce payments. Worldpay draws particular attention to its use in the clothing and footwear sectors (18%) compared to purchasing goods like food.
However, the payment option remains far less popular in Latin America (1%) and the Middle East and Africa (2%). These regions, however, are rapidly adopting another form of payment, which is challenging traditional cards: account-to-account (A2A) real-time payments.
Real-time payments vs cards
A2A payments have seen significant growth in markets like Brazil and India, where they have become dominant methods for both online and in-store transactions. According to Worldpay, by 2030, global A2A payment value is expected to reach $3.8trn, with Brazil’s A2A e-commerce value alone jumping from just $1bn in 2014 to $35bn in 2024.
Government-backed systems such as Brazil’s Pix and India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) are driving this increase.
Pix, launched in November 2020, is used by three out of four Brazilians and is having a significant impact on the nation. Cash transactions in Brazil dropped from 35% in 2020 to 17% in 2024, with Pix transactions set to exceed card payments online and at the point of sale by 2025.
Similarly, UPI, launched in 2016, has turned India’s previously cash-heavy economy on its head. By 2024, UPI is expected to account for 58% of POS and 64% of e-commerce transaction value.
A2A payment success has not gone unnoticed, with other countries, such as Peru, exploring similar systems. The payment option is also not flying under the radar for card issuers like Mastercard and Visa, which now face real competition to the long-term hold they have had on the payments industry.
Nevertheless, cards remain deeply embedded in consumer habits across many regions, especially at the point of sale. In Finland, debit cards accounted for 59% of POS transaction value in 2024, while in Turkey, credit cards made up 43%.
Rise of digital wallets
Card issuers aren’t standing still against the competition from alternative payment methods, however. Networks are investing heavily, offering features like instalment plans to compete with BNPL, and developing tools such as Click to Pay.
Much of the recent shift away from visible card usage is actually due to the migration into digital wallets, a format rapidly gaining ground among consumers.
Globally, when accounting for both direct use and use within digital wallets, cards represented 65% of total consumer spend in 2024, amounting to around $29tn. Worldpay forecasts this will grow to $32.5tn by 2030.
Digital wallets have been criticised recently. A study by Consumer Reports, published on April 24, found popular wallets fall short on transparency and user controls.
Other significant issues were around data usage, with several wallets collecting and sharing personal information for marketing purposes, and in some cases, with third parties. Despite these concerns, wallet adoption continues to rise rapidly, highlighting the power of convenience.
